EUR/USD to Face Larger Rebound on Dismal 4Q U.S. GDP

Posted by Trading Advisor on 7:33 PM with No comments
SymbolPriceChange
EURUSD=X1.1351+0.0027
- U.S. Economy to Expand for Third Straight Quarter in 2014.
- Personal Consumption to Grow 4.0%- Would Mark Biggest Advance Since 4Q 2010.
Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The advance U.S. 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may generate a larger rebound in EUR/USD should the fresh batch of data highlight a slowing recovery in the world’s largest economy.
What’s Expected:
EUR/USD GDP

Why Is This Event Important:
Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to raise the benchmark interest rate in mid-2015, a dismal GDP print may push the central bank to further delay its normalization cycle especially as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario
Release
Expected
Actual
Durable Goods Orders (DEC)
0.3%
-3.4%
Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)
-0.1%
-0.9%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (DEC)
2.2%
1.7%
Subdued wages paired with the recent contraction in private consumption may generate a marked slowdown in economic activity, and a weaker-than-projected growth rate may undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar as it drags on interest rate expectations.
Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario
Release
Expected
Actual
Consumer Confidence (JAN)
95.5
102.9
NFIB Small Business Confidence (DEC)
98.5
100.4
Non-Farm Payrolls (DEC)
240K
252K
Nevertheless, improved confidence along with the ongoing recovery in the labor market may prompt a strong GDP figure, and a positive development may promote a further decline in EUR/USD amid the deviation in the policy outlook.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish USD Trade: 4Q GDP Fails to Meet Market Expectations
  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a long trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a short dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bullish USD Trade: Growth Rate Expands 3.0% or Greater
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in reverse
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EUR/USD Daily EUR/USD Daily Chart

  • Keeping a close eye on the RSI as it continues to flirt with the 30 level; rebound from oversold territory to favor a larger rebound for EUR/USD.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1440 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1470 (78.6% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.1096 (January low) to 1.1100 pivot

Impact that the U.S. GDP report has had on EUR/USD during the last release
Period
Data Released
Estimate
Actual
Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
3Q A
2014
10/30/2014 12:30 GMT
3.0%
3.5%
+12
+19
3Q 2014 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
EUR/USD to Face Larger Rebound on Dismal 4Q U.S. GDP
The U.S. economy advanced more-than-expected in the third-quarter, with the growth rate expanding another annualized 3.5% following the 4.6% expansion during the three-months through June. At the same time, Personal Consumption climbed 1.8% during the same period amid forecasts for a 1.9% print, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) narrowed to 1.4% from 2.0% in the second-quarter. Despite the better-than-expected GDP print, the Fed appears to be in no rush to normalize monetary policy as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation. The initial reaction in EUR/USD was short-lived as the pair snapped back from the 1.2550 region, with the pair ending the day at 1.2602.